The Bears are Getting Vewy Excited

Following the elections in France and Greece, markets are once again starting to look very shaky. Not surprisingly, the bears are out in force this morning portending doom and gloom.

But perhaps what is most interesting is a technical pattern that has been forming for more than a year.and that might signal a historic reversal of the long boom that began in the early 1980s and showed the first signs of real trouble with the dotcom boom and bust at the turn of the century.

If this pattern were to hold, then we could be entering into the decline of a mode of economic development that began in the 1970s with the collapse of consensus that emerged from depression and war in the 1930s and 40s. It is important to remember, though, that technical analysis is never about predicting the future but rather is about identifying emerging possibilities.

Yet if this pattern does hold, then the repugnant outcomes of neoliberalism and the recent resurgence of the more radical left may point toward an emergent consensus, one possibly far more progressive than that which has dominated the previous decades. And if this proves to be true, then early adapters will be particularly rewarded. And of course defenders of a collapsing status quo are likely to fare poorly.

So the question of the moment to institutional leadership everywhere is: which side are you on?